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Monday, September 1, 2008

Odds to Win the 2008 CFFL Championship


Opening Odds

DISCLAIMER: Odds for informational purposes only

3/1 - Ambulance Chasers

6/1 - Spread Eagles
8/1 - Beasts
10/1 - Donkey Punchers

15/1 - Toronto Teabaggers
15/1 - Leg Sweepers
20/1 - StS
25/1 - Spank It Boyz
30/1 - GOODFELLAS

55/1 - SK Warriors
60/1 - Brown B-Rads
60/1 - RI Colts

100/1 - Stratt Men

200/1 - JGR

EXPLANATION:

3/1 - Ambulance Chasers

The Chasers have three stud WRs(T.J. Housmafafaskfjdjdeh, Torry Holt and Jerricho Cotchery)... and while there are other teams with as good or better WRs, those teams dont have Brian Westbrook or a comparable stud at RB. Chris Perry is a pass catching machine at RB2 and looks to be this year's Earnest Graham. Eli/Garrard are a step or two below the elite QBs, but between them should make for average to above average QB production. Shockey could be a monster at TE in the Saints' pass happy offense. No holes on this team except depth.

6/1 - Spread Eagles

Will Sweeney finally not bitch about a review of mine? Somehow I doubt it. I like Pat's team a lot, though. The downside is he has nothing but 2nd or 3rd tier players at WR and RB... and the upside is he has nothing but 2nd or 3rd tier players at WR and RB. I see two RBs and three WRs who should be good for 200+ points each. Then he has Drew Brees. It would take an idiot to screw this team up...

8/1 - Beasts

George has three ridiculous WRs in Andre Johnson, Brandon Marshall and Wes Welker. Everybody else is good enough and he has some upside. RB2 could be a major concern. A week from now if his RB2 goes south he could plummet in these rankings. The strengths of this team are very reminiscent of the 2007 Donkey Punchers.

10/1 - Donkey Punchers

Speaking of the Donkey Punchers, I initially gave them no chance of repeating, but as I look at the other teams this team isnt really that bad. Joe's WRs are underwhelming, but should get the job done. His RBs are very strong and have a ton of upside. Just looking at it, it would make a whole lot of sense for both teams if Joe would trade Julius Jones and another RB to George for one of his WRs.

15/1 - Toronto Teabaggers

Vinny's top two WRs are scary (Moss and Colston). Then there is a significant dropoff to his WR3(Burleson). He also has Witten and McNabb. The RBs are a serious question mark (LenWhale and JStew), but there is a good amount of upside here.

15/1 - Leg Sweepers

Rice has the best WRs in the league (which if you notice, seems to be a theme of these odds). TO, Reggie Wayne and Anquan Boldin should carry him from week to week. Much like Vinny he has fairly crappy RBs(Maroney and Fargas). BUT unlike Vinny he has a stud WR3, which is offset by Vinny having Witten... WHICH is why they both have the same odds in my book.

20/1 - StS

I hate Willis McGahee this year. I hate the entire Ravens offense. They lost Ogden to retirement and then two other offensive linemen in camp. Theyre going to have a rookie QB behind center. Their WRs are awful. Lots of warning signs here. Other than that, Mike's team is very good, though his WR3 spot is a pretty big question mark (Galloway hasnt played yet).

25/1
- Spank It Boyz

Terry? Really? Yes, really. I dont know if he did it on purpose, but Terry has a good team here. Braylon, Coles and Crayton are three very good WR options. Clinton and Selvin should provide above average production at RB. Although his QBs kind of suck (Matt Schaub and Jason Campbell) its not exactly hard to find QBs. He also has Winslow, who I think should be second only to Witten at TE.

30/1
- GOODFELLAS

Jay has a strong team, but there are some pretty big question marks. LT and Thomas Jones/Kevin Smith/Ricky Williams should ensure he gets more out of his RBs than any other team. But his WR1 is Ocho Cinco, and behind him he has Chambers and Ginn. I think Chambers and Ginn are both sleepers this year, but not so much that this WR corps is impressive.

55/1 - SK Warriors

Steve has one WR I love (Fitz), one RB I love (Gore) and a TE I love (Gates). After that he's in trouble. Michael Jenkins and Ronald Curry just dont cut it. If either one were a WR3 behind Fitz and another good WR I would still list them as a problem. Reggie Brown needs to come up big to make this work - and that hasnt exactly been Reggie Brown's strongpoint in the past. Good upside here, but his floor is lower than most.

60/1 - Brown B-Rads

Adrian Peterson is awesome. Earnest Graham is pretty good. Greg Jennings, though, is no WR1. Dwayne Bowe and Derrick Mason arent great options at WR either. Tony Scheffler is the TE, and right now he's #2 on Shanahan's depth chart at TE. This team just doesnt have a lot of upside. I guess Bowe could break out, but even then this WR corps just isnt up to par, and the rest of the team doesnt have the upside to carry them. He will probably finish above some teams Ive listed with better odds, but I dont see Brad winning this thing in any scenario.

60/1 - RI Colts

Im not a huge LJ fan, but he should be solid. Same for FWP. The problem with this team is WRs. Much like Brad's team, Marvin Harrison just isnt a WR1. Driver could be better than expected, but Tom has nothing resembling a WR3. This team is very similar to Brad's. Even if the WRs come through better than expected - even if things break right - these teams just dont have the upside to run with the big dogs. The caveat is that Brad and Tom are usually pretty smart maneuvering and on the waiver wire. If they fill the holes, these teams could take off pretty quickly.

100/1 - Stratt Men

Ben's team has solid pieces and should be fun to watch. He snagged the 2007 CFFL MVP in Tom Brady... yet much like last year it seems unlikely Brady will be able to lead his team to the CFFL playoffs. Reggie Bush and Matt Forte are pretty good options at RB. Steve Smith, Donte Stallworth and Berrian/Santana Moss are pretty good WRs. I see another team destined for a mid standings finish with no real chance of winning and not much upside. Unlike the rest of us, Ben isnt the sort of lunatic who will jump on the hot pickup each week, and so I had to discount him for that... a couple nice pickups could really help this team, but Im not seeing it...

200/1 - JGR

This was not the team I expected to see at the bottom of the odds... but each time I looked around the league I could reach no other conclusion. This team is BAD. He has Tony Romo and Marion Barber. Love both those guys. Everyone else on this team is terrible. Listen to these WRs: Roddy White, Robert Meachem, Jabar Gaffney, Mark Clayton, Ken Walter. I count about seven teams in our league where Roddy White would be - at best - a WR4. Those WRs are just the worst thing Ive ever seen. It has to be the worst WR corps in CFFL history. In any given week most teams will get more from their WR3 slot than John will from his WR2 AND WR3.

One strength he has is RB depth, but not the kind that's going to land him real solutions through trade. Edge is fine, sure. What's the best case with him, though? Certainly not anywhere what it would take to carry these WRs...


Odds will be updated weekly

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

60-1???????? I mean last year the worst odds you gave out was 30-1.

So you are saying that my team is basically two times worse than any other team last year.

I don't think my team is that good but 60-1?

Please note: The 30-1 team ended up with best W/L record in the league. So who knows what a 60-1 or 200-1 team would do.

alskor said...

Yeah, I looked at the NFL odds, and I was trying to give some more spread out odds this year.