Trade Analysis

As we close in on the auction I thought Id do a rundown of the significant player movement in the league.


TRADE #1 -
PAT gets: Tony Pena, Jr. Rocco Baldelli Jarrod Saltalamacchia 2008 5th round pick (43rd overall) StS(Stump the Skorupe) gets: Jhonny Peralta Kelvim Escobar

Pat is now the only CFBL manager with a player on his team he went to high school with. He gave up a lot to get him though. What concerns me with Bal-DL-i, other than the persistent injuries - as I write this he is still limited to DHing, is that the Rays must excercise or decline the Woonsocket Rocket's 2009 option before opening day. There is a legitimate chance they decline the option. Further, the Rays have a lot of decent OFers vying for playing time.

The real gem, for Pat, is of course Saltalamacchia. I like Salty, of course, but he has some drawbacks in 08 and going forward. First, he's not the starting catcher for his own team yet. While I would give him the job in a second, I dont know what the Rangers are doing and its not a lock right now. Secondly, he may move to first base in the next couple years with the glut of great catching options and prospects the Rangers have (Teagarden, Max Ramirez, etc...). Less of a concern for Pat, as Salty would almost certainly catch enough games to remain eligible at C, but a little scary going forward as his production is nothing special coming from 1B. Still, who wouldnt want Salty on their team?

Which brings me to the price Pat paid. If youre waiting for a breakdown of Tony Pena I would advise you to not hold your breath. Peralta has some question marks but is a gigantic upgrade for Mike, who had nothing at SS and was looking to have to pay out the nose for one. Even better, Peralta, although not cheap, is signed for a few years, which brings some stability to a middle infield that might lose Brian Roberts any day now.

Escobar holds the distinction of being the best pitcher traded since the CFBL became a dynasty league. He has now been an Ambulance Chaser, Donkey Puncher and StSer besides his time playing for Sweeney. Its not as bad as it looks though, in that Escobar will miss likely the first month of the season, and perhaps more, given his injury history.

All in all, I think Pat overpaid for two players he liked. Peralta was an above average SS option in a market where SSs are hard to come by and Escobar was an above average starting pitcher signed relatively cheap. I like that Pat recognized standing pat(pun intended) would be a mistake and made some bold moves. I dont care for the return he got here howevere. He lost value to get players he wanted.

WINNER: StS


TRADE #2 - Pat gets: Adam Miller 2008 1st round pick (8th overall) The right to re-sign Michael Cuddyer $3M in 2008 $2M in 2009 $1M in 2010 JGR gets: Bobby Abreu 2008 5th round pick (45th overall)

Yeah, so I though Pat overpaid to get a player he liked in Salty... then I heard about this train wreck of a trade. Pat got the best of John here... and despite that John's team will be better in 08 for it. Adam Miller is overrated. I give John credit for recognizing that. It looks like he may never stay healthy, and even if he does, his reputation exceeds his value at this point. The 8th overall pick is a good pick. Both these things are valuable. I would trade them for Abreu most likely. I also like John's inclusion of small future money amounts. Ive proposed a number of trades like this and its a good idea. A smart exploitation of the new money trading rules. Cuddyer is good, but $11.5M for three years? Not exactly a bargain there.

Altogether, I still think the package is just too much for Abreu. The issue isnt even that John overpaid that badly. John overpaid, but not to a ridiculous amount. The issue is John overpaid to get a player he didnt need with Markakis, Rios and Carl Crawford on board. The auction is deepest in OFers. He could have kept all these assets (or more intelligently traded them for pitching) and signed Milton Bradley... or re-signed Michael Cuddyer. Let's explore that further. What's the difference between Cuddyer and Abreu? Here's their PECOTA in the relevant categories:

R HR RBI SB OBP
Abreu 90 15 69 18 .378
Cuddyer 77 17 79 6 .347

Now, Im not arguing that Abreu isnt the better player - he quite obviously is. What I AM saying is that the difference wasnt worth the price payed here. Abreu also makes a few more million than Cuddyer, but is a much shorter commitment. I dont hate this trade for John, but he fell into the same trap Pat did with Salty - he fell in love with a player and overpaid. You cant blame Pat for the price he charged... he would normally not want to trade Abreu at all. No one will notice the lost value when Abreu does well for JGR this year, but it was there nonetheless.

WINNER: SWEENEY



TRADE #3- Mike gets: Paul Byrd DPers get: 2008 2nd round pick (13th overall) 2009 4th round pick

Mike needed pitching and mike got pitching. Did he pay too much for a questionable pitcher? Sure. His farm system is loaded and he couldnt really use the draft pick, though. Plus, Joe (or anyone) isnt going to give up a starting pitcher signed cheap on a one year deal who is a solid lock for a MLB rotation for anything less. It might look bad in two or three years if the 2nd round pick pans out, but if Byrd gives Mike 120 IP that gets him into the playoffs and into the money than it was probably worth it, no?

WINNER: DPers


TRADE #4- Pat gets: 2008 1st round pick (6th overall) 2008 4th round pick (35th overall) The rights to re-sign Mike Lowell Spics gets: Joakim Soria 2008 2nd round pick (listed as 15th overall on CFBL website, but I believe its 16th overall)

Decent little trade here. Pat moves up into the first round while giving up a cheap closer... but in my opinion, nothing special. Im not a Lowell fan, but he should work out fine this year at least. I like that he got the two picks and moved up into the top 6. The top 5 players in this draft could be pretty special... If Pat had someone he really wanted and thought he wouldnt last to 15/16 it makes sense. Its going to depend on what he does with the pick. I do like the middle of the second round as well, so it could be interesting to see what Brad does with the pick he gets. Ive got to tentatively give Pat the win here though, because I do think Brad could have done something nice with the 6th overall. This could shift dramatically depending on who gets taken with these picks. I will say that either way the risk made sense for Brad given his salary constraints.

WINNER: SWEENEY (Slightly)


TRADE #5- Steve gets: Jose Lopez 2009 4th round pick Brad gets: $1.5M

I actually like this deal for Steve. Its a cheap piece that allows him to spend on the thins he wants in the auction. Lopez is a pretty crappy player, and while it remains unlikely he gets better its always smart to have young players with starting jobs signed for cheap amounts that you can keep them at. Brad pretty much had to make this trade to stay under the cap. Its pretty much a wash, but we'll give Steve the win because a $2M starting second baseman is a valuable bargaining chip moving forward - assuming Lopez doesnt stink up the joint.

WINNER: SK Warriors