CFBL 2008 Minor League Draft Analysis: 4th Round

Pick 1
Hajji Bombs
1B Brandon Snyder BAL

I dont understand this pick. Snyder was once considered a pretty good prospect... but that was two years ago. Was Steve looking at an old list? I dont think its a worthless pick, but the odds are against this guy ever having fantasy value. He was terrible as a 19 year old and hasnt shown much power in his pro career. Last year, he resurrected his value a little going for .263/.330/.409 with 11 HRs in A ball as a 20 year old. BUT he moved from catcher to 1B. Now, if we discount Mills and Davis for having a tough time making it as 1B we obviously have to be very, very skeptical of Snyder.

To illustrate my point about 1B, lets say one of these three 1B prospects goes for a fantasy line of 67 R/21 HR/80 RBI and .343 OBP. That's pretty good, right? Not that great from a 1B. That's PECOTA's projection for Ryan Garko. PECOTA has 14 AL 1B eligible players having better lines than that this year. Please remember there are 10 teams in our league. Now, obviously you could play this guy at utility, and we'd all like to have Ryan Garko... Im NOT saying the 14th best 1B is worthless, especially when he puts up a line like that. What I am saying is the odds are against a 1B prospect ever reaching that plateau of performance - and EVEN if he does that's still only good for 14th best at his position. To list some of the 14 - Ortiz, Pena, Hafner, Swisher, Konerko, Morneau, Youk, VMart, Guillen... etc... (I dont want to give away my big board here... you get the point)

Pick 2
Greco
(Passed)

There's lots of players Id like above lots of Dave's guys here.


Pick 3
Ambulance Chasers
P Chorye Spoone BAL

Love Spoone. Lots of Ks and lots of groundballs. Durable build. High upside.


Pick 4
RI Colts
OF Ryan Royster TB

I really, really liked Royster and the next pick, Nick Weglarz. They were my two sleeper position players. I felt comfortable going pitcher with the pick above because they were both still available and I got to select again in three picks. So I was pretty unhappy to see them taken. Im not sure I would have taken one, but they were on my radar.

Royster is a heck of hitter.


Pick 5
Spread Eagles
OF Nick Weglarz CLE

Weglarz has a ton of power and has shown impressive patience for a 19 year old. He's a big Canadian kid with an uppercut swing... reminds me of Jeromy Burnitz. Downside is he's at best a two category player. So the gamble is he becomes good enough at those two categories to justify using him... I would have taken that gamble.


Pick 6
Ambulance Chasers
P James Simmons OAK

Middle of the rotation type who went straight from college to AA and pitched well there. Too much of a value to pass on here.


Pick 7
Mezak Attack
P Sean O'Sullivan LAA

I liked O'Sullivan a good bit heading into the draft. I definitely would have taken him if he dropped another round and would have considered him with my next pick. His problem is he has no out pitch at the MLB level. So his ceiling isnt great, but he's a pretty good prospect despite that.


Pick 8
Gay Rainbows
OF Ben Revere MIN

I like this pick. Revere has a bad rap as a one category player... and to be fair he hasnt shown much hitting ability or patience so far. I think he could easily improve enough to be a fantasy asset given the perennial paucity of stolen bases.

EDIT: Interesting side note... look at the photo. First, I assumed Ben Revere was a white guy... which reminds me of a funny sports guy comment about how Reggie Willits and Howie Kendrick need to swap names. Second, what the hell is with this photo? That's either a pop up or a swinging strike, right? Look where the bat head is... that doesnt bode well, Johnny. That doesnt bode well at all...


Pick 9
Donkey Punchers
3B Kevin Ahrens TOR

Ahrens is as high end a hitter as is available at this point in the draft. There are some question marks, but it was a good risk here. Joe added a number of potential middle of the order bats in this draft.


Pick 10
Ambulance Chasers
P Danny Duffy KC

Steal of the Draft. GFY.

Lefty who throws in mid 90's.