CFBL 2008 Minor League Draft Analysis: 2nd Round

Pick 1
Hajji Bombs
C Taylor Teagarden TEX

I like Teagarden a lot here. He's got plus power and patience for a catcher. The downsides were injuries and that he's pretty well blocked, but his upside is substantial. A couple arms were out there that I would have gone with first (Cahill, Cortes) but Teagarden is a solid choice.


Pick 2
Greco
P Phillippe Aumont SEA

Im not a big Aumont fan. He has a very high upside but I hate drafting pitching "projects." Aumont started playing baseball in high school, is Canadian, and speaks no English. That's as much of a project as you can get. He has a great frame and could be a nasty pitcher down the line... but there were safer options here with nearly as much upside that i would have gone with first.


Pick 3
Donkey Punchers
P Trevor Cahill OAK

This was the right pick here. I was definitely taking him if he dropped one more spot. I had him and Cortes right next to eachother, though, so I wasnt too sorry to miss out on Cahill. He has a lot of upside... his inability to get lefthanders out is troubling, but he was the best player left on the board here.


Pick 4
Ambulance Chasers
P Dan Cortes KC

Same upside as Cahill. Slightly less of a pedigree. Slightly less question marks.


Pick 5
Spread Eagles
P Nick Blackburn MIN

I had Blackburn way down on my board. He isnt a very good pitcher. Baseball America idiotically had him as the Twins best prospect, but he is never going to have a shot at being even an average major league starting pitcher. Pitchers succed by doing two things well - 1) Striking batters out; and 2) Keeping the ball on the ground (and consequently in the park). Blackburn struck out 5.56 per 9 IP in his minor league career. That is just... terrible. Its frightening to imagine how few major league batters he would strike out.

Now, some guys like Chien Ming Wang can succeed despite low strikeout rates by inducing an extreme amount of ground balls. The problem with Blackburn is that he doesnt strike anyone out OR get a great amount of groundballs (41%). For comparison, a sinkerballer like Derek Lowe doesnt strike out a lot of guys, but he looks like Nolan Ryan compared to Blackburn(5.87 K/9 Career). Lowe succeeds despite this poor K rate by getting batters to hit groundballs around 66% of the time. Blackburn simply will not have a long or good career. Add to his poor skill set the fact that he's entering his age 26 season... and well... that's paints a pretty ugly picture. He's just not very good and not going to get any better.

In defense of this pick, Pat already took a number of high upside players so he could gamble here on a guy who could help now. Blackburn might "help" this year, as he very well could make a few starts for the Twinkies. I dont think Blackburn should have gone undrafted, but this is far too high for him in my humble opinion. If Pat wanted to get a close to the majors/help now type why not take Aaron Laffey? He has much better pedigree as a prospect than Blackburn and as good a chance to have an impact this year. He's also younger and better. He isnt a big K guy(6.21/9), but gets a very good amount of ground balls (59%).

Not a fan of this pick.


Pick 6
Greco
P Brett Cecil TOR

I like Cecil, and I appreciate Dave picking the best Maryland Terrapin available, thus sticking it to John and Brad. I do think this is too early for this guy. He was a reliever in college and he has a number of question marks. He does have nasty stuff and a lot of talent.

As the draft approached I questioned if I had Cecil too low. I had Hagadone in the 2nd round and he has some of the same question marks and arguably equal upside. The big difference is Hagadone has four good pitches and Cecil's secondary stuff is very questionable. I think ultimately we see Cecil as a reliever and I dont think anyone would take a reliever this young here... I can see the argument for Cecil, though.


Pick 7
Mezak Attack
INF Jed Lowrie BOS

I know everyone apparently had Lowrie here or higher... but I just dont see him ever being an impact fantasy player. He has no power or speed to speak of. He has no place in a lineup. He's going to be 24 this year. He only contributes in OBP. I think Jed will be an excellent player in real life... but his fantasy value is questionable.

On the other hand the offensive threshold for middle infielders is soooooo low that Lowrie could very easily become an average option at 2B in a year or two. That would be pretty good value... still not a big fan.


Pick 8
Johnny Gay Rainbows
P Aaron Poreda CHW

I dont really like Poreda that much. He has a lot of talent, but he's a pitching project that is a looooong way away. He has an impressive fastball and a nice power arm... but nothing in terms of secondary pitches. The big downside to guys like Poreda, Beavan and Aumont is that they can just as easily end up relief pitchers. Thats the risk you take when you draft a pitching project. I do like Poreda here more than I like Aumont at 12. I had both of them going in the middle of the third round, so this isnt really a big stretch. I just see them as really high risk guys and Im not sure the upside is as advertised.


Pick 9
Donkey Punchers
1B Beau Mills CLE

I like Mills. He is massive and broad shouldered and has plus plus power. I see him as very similar to Chris Davis, but Mills might be a better hitter with less holes in his swing. Davis is very prone to K's. Dont' get me wrong, I would still take Davis above Mills... Davis is likely going to start the year in AAA... so he's a hell of a lot closer to ready - though Mills is expected to move fast. Nearness to the majors is value that overcomes ceiling a lot of the time... Davis is much more of a known quantity and that's worth something.

The caveat with Mills is the same as Davis... its very hard for a 1B prospect to break into the majors and be an above average fantasy option.


Pick 10
Ambulance Chasers
P Aaron Laffey CLE

Kind of a low ceiling guy... though that angle has been overplayed if you ask me. I like him here because I realized I would definitely trade this pick for a mediocre major league pitcher... so why wouldnt I use it on a guy who is likely to pitch >100 innings this year AND I can send him up and down and transition him next year? Pretty happy I got this guy. I think most teams had him around here. Best part was I got my other choice for this pick(Tyler Robertson) with my next pick at the end of the third round.

I had hoped to get a high end position player here but Teagarden, Davis and Mills were all gone, and a number of guys were left from the next tier of position players... unfortunately the two I was targeting (Kalish and Wes Hodges)would both be gone before my next pick.

When I say I think too much was made of his "low ceiling" I would point to his projections for this year (his age 23 season). ZiPS has him going 11-10, pitching 176 innings, striking out 96 and posting a 4.55 ERA. PECOTA has him going 9-7, 150 IP, 80 Ks, and a 4.24 ERA. That's a pretty helpful pitcher to your fantasy team...


BEST PICK: Cahill
QUESTIONABLE PICK: Blackburn
REACH: Aumont, Cecil