CFBL 2008 Minor League Draft Analysis: 1st Round

Pick 1
Hajji Bombs
P David Price TB

A no brainer with the first pick. Price has already impressed in the spring and could move very fast.


Pick 2
Greco
P Rick Porcello DET

I think the consensus is that Porcello should be taken here, although there is a huge element of risk involved in any high school pitcher. I toyed with moving him down on my draft board many times, but in the end I probably take him here.


Pick 3
Spread Eagles
INF Mike Moustakas KC

I think this came as a surprise to most people. Moustakas has a huge upside... makes me think "Jeff Kent," but you know... a good defender. This pick will be judged by how Matt Wieters does ultimately... because that is who Pat passed on to take Moose. It may turn out theyre both very good players, but if they both hit their perfect world projections this pick will look to everyone like a mistake. I do think the criticism is valid, even though both guys could move quick and end up being stars.

I saw this draft as three elite prospects (Price, Porcello, Wieters) and then a drop off followed by two second tier stud prospects (Jennings and Moustakas), and then another drop off. That is why this move puzzled me. If I was sitting at the number 6 pick I would been trying like hell to move up... Pat, on the other hand, was guaranteed no worse than Jennings picking at 5 but gave up a lot of value to move to the #3.


Pick 4
RI Colts
C Matt Wieters BAL

Tom, who had been planning on taking Moustakas for a long time, was delighted to have Wieters fall to him. I dont see how he could have picked anyone else here and it was great value.

What would have been very interesting is to have seen someone really have to choose between Moustakas and Jennings. I think I would have gone Moose, but its super close.


Pick 5
Smelly Spics
OF Desmond Jennings TB

Jennings is a good one and definitely should have been the fifth pick.

You have to have that panic moment though, when you realize with your first pick you just took the second Tampa prospect in the first round... sort of like when Chad Johnson goes in a football draft and every year I shout out "Third best player named johnson is now off the board!"


Pick 6
Spread Eagles
OF Austin Jackson NYY

Im not the biggest Austin Jackson fan, but realistically he's very, very similar to Jennings. My biggest criticism of Jackson is that he's only had about 500 ABs where he performed well... but hey, same goes for Jennings. Theyre both super athletes and power/speed guys with very high ceilings. I had him a good deal lower than here... but then... I hate Yankees.


Pick 7
Mezak Attack
P Jordan Walden LAA

This is the guy I would have taken at #6, so if he comes close to his considerable ceiling its going to make it very, very hard for Austin Jackson to justify Pat's pick short of becoming Carl Crawford or Bobby Abreu.


Pick 8
Spread Eagles
1B Chris Davis TEX

I really like Chris Davis. There is a decent chance he is the first round draft pick who contributes this year significantly. I would have taken him later just because its so extremely difficult for a first base prospect to become an above average MLB first baseman... I mean if he becomes an .800 OPS hitter who hits 25 bombs every year... well, that's not really anything all that special for a first baseman, now is it? I thought he would get picked somewhere around here though, and deservedly so - because plus plus power is hard to come by and this guy has it.


Pick 9
Donkey Punchers
P Alan Horne NYY

Maybe a little early for Horne, but not much moreso than for Davis. My criticism of these two picks would be that there were some higher ceiling young pitchers I would have gone with first... but then those guys all dropped a bit anyway. The pitcher I had in mind here was Trevor Cahill - and Joe actually got him with his next pick, four picks later... so no harm, no foul. For aesthetic reasons I would have taken Cahill here and Horne with the 13th... but its just semantics at this point because he got the two players he should have.

Horne is viewed by many as a low ceiling, poor stuff, older pitching prospect. Not true. He was a first round pick by the Indians but did not sign. He has pretty good stuff, throws pretty hard and gets very good K numbers.


Pick 10
Ambulance Chasers
P Michael Main TEX

A first round pick of the Rangers; a high school pitcher with good stuff. This statement could describe Michael Main or it could just as easily describe Blake Beavan, Tom's third round pick in this draft. In fact, Beaven and Main were both taken by the Rangers this year and Beaven was chosen a handful of picks ahead of Main! I have no doubt Main is the better pitching prospect despite this. The draft order was an issue of signability and pre-arranged deals.

Main has an electric fastball, a plus power curve and some pretty good secondary stuff. He was a two way star who some teams had ranked as their top high school OFer. Main is a phenomenal natural athlete with "plus plus speed" who teams envisioned as a high upside CFer. He also has extremely smooth mechanics. I knew for a long time that he would be sitting for me here and I was going to take him - unless maybe Walden fell. Could I have gotten someone else here and still got Main with the 14th? Maybe. It wasnt a chance I was prepared to take and I was determined this year to take the guys I wanted instead of guys I thought I should take. Its unlike me to take a high school pitcher... but mechanics, athleticism and make up means Main is far less of a risk than most high school pitchers.


BEST PICK: Price
QUESTIONABLE PICK: Moustakas
REACH: Horne/Main