CFBL 2008 Minor League Draft Analysis: Supplemental Round

Pick 1
Donkey Punchers
For losing Tyler Clippard NYY to WAS via trade
P Juan Ramirez SEA

Juan Ramirez was the best player left on the board. Hard throwing 19 year old international signee. Nasty stuff, good K numbers and could move fast. High ceiling, but could very well end up a closer... we havent seen how he'll hold up to a full year of starts yet.


Pick 2
Donkey Punchers
For losing Darrell Rasner NYY, waived
P Andrew Bailey OAK

Bailey is touted as a low ceiling pitcher... but his minor league line so far: 183 IP, 203 K's, 140 H's. He pitched mostly in A ball, but jumped to AAA for one start at the end of the year. 8 IP, 1 ER, 4K, 3H, 1BB. The major question I have about Bailey is whether he develops a third consistent pitch... if not he might end up in the pen. Definitely a chance worth taking here.


Pick 3
Spread Eagles
For losing Matt DeSalvo NYY, waived
C J.P. Arencibia TOR

Arencibia has some red flags... I wouldnt jump at taking a catcher with a bad back. Still, lots of upside here for a late pick. He could be really good.


Pick 4
RI Colts
For losing Eulogio De La Cruz DET, traded to FLA
P Heath Rollins TB

Hollins had great numbers this year and I had him on my radar. He has a reputation of being a guy with so-so stuff and excellent command. That's the kind of guy who ends up either pretty good or gets very exposed when he reaches the higher minors.


Pick 5
StS
From RI Colts - For losing Aaron Cunningham CHW, traded to ARI
P Carlos Rosa KC
Rosa is a guy who doesnt really impress me. He's okay at everything but not good at anything either. He doesnt throw particularly hard and he doesnt last long into his starts. He's a fine gamble for this part of the draft, but I think he's going to end up as a reliever.


Pick 6
Smelly Spics
For losing Gorkys Hernandez DET, traded to ATL
SS Carmen Angelini NYY

Angelini was a 10th round pick who the Yanks got by paying way over slot money. He's supposed to be a decent talent but I dont know much about him. He's a toolsy 19 year old... and if I havent made it clear how I feel about those types... and especially Brad drafting those guys... well, you need to work on your reading skills.


Pick 7
Hajji Bombs
For losing Dallas Trahern DET, traded to FLA
3B Matt Mangini SEA

A decent prospect with some good power. I think he might be a little undervalued, but Im not a big fan.


Pick 8
Spread Eagles
???
OF Joe Benson MIN
Mr. Irrelevant is toolsy OFer who hasnt done much as a pro. He's a big project right now but he has a high ceiling.

CFBL 2008 Minor League Draft Analysis: 5th Round

Pick 1
Hajji Bombs
P Sam Runion KC

I had Runion on my draft board, but to be honest I dont know a whole lot about him. He's a big right-handed pitcher... so that has some value. Whether he ends up a reliever or starter is the question that would bug me, but he's got good enough stuff that you dont mind taking that kind of gamble at this point in the draft.

Pick 2
Greco
(Passed)


Pick 3
Smelly Spics
SS Oscar Tejeda BOS

Another high upside, I dont know what Im getting pick from Brad. I guess if one of these guys pans out he'd be in pretty good shape. I think a lot of the hype around these really young players is SNTS - Shiny New Toy Syndrome. We dont know their flaws yet... as opposed to slightly older prospects where we can already see their limitations and weaknesses. That shouldnt be taken to mean that these young kids dont have flaws... we just cant tell what they are yet.

Picking 17 year old kids is a great way to get a guy before his stock skyrockets... but the risk is magnified many times as well.


Pick 4
RI Colts
P Andrew Brackman NYY

Not a fan. Yankee prospect. Already out for the entire 08 season. Major project. The upside is there... but he's such a bad risk with such little chance of reaching his upside. Acceptable risk at this point for someone who likes the guy more than me... but I would pass here and keep on passing.


Pick 5
Gay Rainbows
C John Jaso TB

Jaso has good power for a catcher. He's also had a ton of injuries. Best catching prospect on the board here... maybe Max Ramirez, but he's probably not a MLB catcher. If Jaso has to move to 1B I like the pick considerably less... but hey, what else are you going to get at this point in the draft?


Pick 6
Smelly Spics
INF Will Middlebrooks BOS

I DO like this pick. He's older and played high school ball in America... so there's less risk. Middlebrooks is supposed to be a damned good athlete. He's a five tool player and has a nice power stroke. I probably would have taken him with my next pick if he was there. Might grow too big to stay at SS, but this guy's bat and tools will let him play a lot of places. The downside is we dont know exactly what he is. 2008 will tell us something, but it may be a couple years before we get any idea of what we're looking at here.

Pick 7
Mezak Attack
(Passed)


Pick 8
Gay Rainbows
P Jack Egbert CWS

I like this pick a lot. Very low upside pitcher, but probably will see time in the majors this year... and getting that is a bargain this late.


Pick 9
Ambulance Chasers
P Omar Poveda TEX

Poveda is a beast. Big guy who has put up some good numbers so far. What bothers me is how stacked with pitching prospects the Rangers are... but I really liked this guy here.


Pick 10
Ambulance Chasers
2B/SS Josh Rodriguez CLE

I noticed here that I had missed out on all my position player targets... and the next tier of pitching prospects were all the same to me, and less than spectacular at that. Rodriguez is a very good hitter for a middle infielder. He may not have the athleticism to stick at SS in the majors, even though he has a ridiculously strong arm. JRod was a 2nd round pick in 2006. Last year he put up a line of .262/.351/.460 with 20 HRs and 21 SBs at high A Kinston. I dont know about you but Id be pretty happy to get that from my second baseman.

CFBL 2008 Minor League Draft Analysis: 4th Round

Pick 1
Hajji Bombs
1B Brandon Snyder BAL

I dont understand this pick. Snyder was once considered a pretty good prospect... but that was two years ago. Was Steve looking at an old list? I dont think its a worthless pick, but the odds are against this guy ever having fantasy value. He was terrible as a 19 year old and hasnt shown much power in his pro career. Last year, he resurrected his value a little going for .263/.330/.409 with 11 HRs in A ball as a 20 year old. BUT he moved from catcher to 1B. Now, if we discount Mills and Davis for having a tough time making it as 1B we obviously have to be very, very skeptical of Snyder.

To illustrate my point about 1B, lets say one of these three 1B prospects goes for a fantasy line of 67 R/21 HR/80 RBI and .343 OBP. That's pretty good, right? Not that great from a 1B. That's PECOTA's projection for Ryan Garko. PECOTA has 14 AL 1B eligible players having better lines than that this year. Please remember there are 10 teams in our league. Now, obviously you could play this guy at utility, and we'd all like to have Ryan Garko... Im NOT saying the 14th best 1B is worthless, especially when he puts up a line like that. What I am saying is the odds are against a 1B prospect ever reaching that plateau of performance - and EVEN if he does that's still only good for 14th best at his position. To list some of the 14 - Ortiz, Pena, Hafner, Swisher, Konerko, Morneau, Youk, VMart, Guillen... etc... (I dont want to give away my big board here... you get the point)

Pick 2
Greco
(Passed)

There's lots of players Id like above lots of Dave's guys here.


Pick 3
Ambulance Chasers
P Chorye Spoone BAL

Love Spoone. Lots of Ks and lots of groundballs. Durable build. High upside.


Pick 4
RI Colts
OF Ryan Royster TB

I really, really liked Royster and the next pick, Nick Weglarz. They were my two sleeper position players. I felt comfortable going pitcher with the pick above because they were both still available and I got to select again in three picks. So I was pretty unhappy to see them taken. Im not sure I would have taken one, but they were on my radar.

Royster is a heck of hitter.


Pick 5
Spread Eagles
OF Nick Weglarz CLE

Weglarz has a ton of power and has shown impressive patience for a 19 year old. He's a big Canadian kid with an uppercut swing... reminds me of Jeromy Burnitz. Downside is he's at best a two category player. So the gamble is he becomes good enough at those two categories to justify using him... I would have taken that gamble.


Pick 6
Ambulance Chasers
P James Simmons OAK

Middle of the rotation type who went straight from college to AA and pitched well there. Too much of a value to pass on here.


Pick 7
Mezak Attack
P Sean O'Sullivan LAA

I liked O'Sullivan a good bit heading into the draft. I definitely would have taken him if he dropped another round and would have considered him with my next pick. His problem is he has no out pitch at the MLB level. So his ceiling isnt great, but he's a pretty good prospect despite that.


Pick 8
Gay Rainbows
OF Ben Revere MIN

I like this pick. Revere has a bad rap as a one category player... and to be fair he hasnt shown much hitting ability or patience so far. I think he could easily improve enough to be a fantasy asset given the perennial paucity of stolen bases.

EDIT: Interesting side note... look at the photo. First, I assumed Ben Revere was a white guy... which reminds me of a funny sports guy comment about how Reggie Willits and Howie Kendrick need to swap names. Second, what the hell is with this photo? That's either a pop up or a swinging strike, right? Look where the bat head is... that doesnt bode well, Johnny. That doesnt bode well at all...


Pick 9
Donkey Punchers
3B Kevin Ahrens TOR

Ahrens is as high end a hitter as is available at this point in the draft. There are some question marks, but it was a good risk here. Joe added a number of potential middle of the order bats in this draft.


Pick 10
Ambulance Chasers
P Danny Duffy KC

Steal of the Draft. GFY.

Lefty who throws in mid 90's.

CFBL 2008 Minor League Draft Analysis: 3rd Round

Pick 1
Hajji Bombs
OF Ryan Kalish BOS

You have to love Kalish. He's a speed and power OFer that has nearly the same ceiling as Desmond Jennings or Austin Jackson. Kalish isnt the athlete those two are, but he has their speed on the basepaths and a much more advanced approach at the plate. He missed most of last year with a wrist injury but his numbers have been very impressive as a professional. He could move fast.


Pick 2
Greco
P Henry Rodriguez OAK

HRod is a guy I took off my board because I was afraid he ends up a reliever. He throws very hard and has filthy stuff, but lacks secondary pitches. This is an appropriate gamble at this point, because even if he becomes a reliever he would be a sick reliever and you could definitely take someone like that here. A lot of upside here.


Pick 3
RI Colts
P Blake Beavan TEX

Another guy who could be a releiver. More of a project than HRod, though. Beavan cant match the nasty fastball of the other project pitchers, but his slider is unhittable. His throwing motion is all messed up and he could take a while to fix and that's my major concern. A lot of pitchers with nasty sliders do it by torquing their bodies in a weird way. When pitching coaches correct their throwing motion the sliders lose their effectiveness... (see Hansen, Craig). Beavan has a lot of talent, but who the hell knows what he will be in three years. He still should be taken around here, though, just not a personal fave of mine.


Pick 4
RI Colts
P Jake Arrieta BAL

I do love this pick. Big Arrieta fan.


Pick 5
Spread Eagles
P Nick Hagadone BOS

I would have taken Hagadone over the last two picks, for what its worth. Although he was a college reliever he has multiple plus pitches and is going to be a starter. He has great stuff and I expect to see him near the top of many prospect lists next year. He was a major fall to get taken here.


Pick 6
Smelly Spics
OF Engel Beltre TEX

Not a fan of this pick. He's sooooo far away. He hasnt done jack shit as a professional. Too much of an unknown. I would take him in the last round, maybe but there were better picks left on the board.


Pick 7
Mezak Attack
OF Brett Gardner NYY

Although I hate Yankees prospects... this guy has ridiculous speed and gaudy stolen base totals. The downside is he's pretty one dimensional for an OFer. Speed is so rare that you can justify it, but there were other directions to go in.


Pick 8
Gay Rainbows
3B Wes Hodges CLE

LOVE this pick. Shouldnt have fallen this far. Plus power and patience and he plays a more valuable defensive position than Mills or Davis. Not to mention the Tribe may soon have a need at 3B.


Pick 9
Donkey Punchers
C/1B Jesus Montero NYY

Montero has a ridiculous amount of power and a huge frame. I dont believe for a second he sticks at catcher, but his bat should carry at 1B. Loooooong way off - he's not even 18 yet - but big upside. I like picks like this in the middle rounds.

Pick 10
Ambulance Chasers
P Tyler Robertson MIN

Could not believe this guy fell to me here. I love Robertson. In my initial draft board I had him at 8th overall. In his rookie debut he pitched 48 innings and struck out 54. The next season he threw 102 IP and struck out 123. He has a filthy slider and a decent fastball with a late downward movement to it. He has good control. Double A will be the big test for him to see whether advanced hitters lay off the slider. He also loses his stuff late into starts... tremendous upside despite that.

CFBL 2008 Minor League Draft Analysis: 2nd Round

Pick 1
Hajji Bombs
C Taylor Teagarden TEX

I like Teagarden a lot here. He's got plus power and patience for a catcher. The downsides were injuries and that he's pretty well blocked, but his upside is substantial. A couple arms were out there that I would have gone with first (Cahill, Cortes) but Teagarden is a solid choice.


Pick 2
Greco
P Phillippe Aumont SEA

Im not a big Aumont fan. He has a very high upside but I hate drafting pitching "projects." Aumont started playing baseball in high school, is Canadian, and speaks no English. That's as much of a project as you can get. He has a great frame and could be a nasty pitcher down the line... but there were safer options here with nearly as much upside that i would have gone with first.


Pick 3
Donkey Punchers
P Trevor Cahill OAK

This was the right pick here. I was definitely taking him if he dropped one more spot. I had him and Cortes right next to eachother, though, so I wasnt too sorry to miss out on Cahill. He has a lot of upside... his inability to get lefthanders out is troubling, but he was the best player left on the board here.


Pick 4
Ambulance Chasers
P Dan Cortes KC

Same upside as Cahill. Slightly less of a pedigree. Slightly less question marks.


Pick 5
Spread Eagles
P Nick Blackburn MIN

I had Blackburn way down on my board. He isnt a very good pitcher. Baseball America idiotically had him as the Twins best prospect, but he is never going to have a shot at being even an average major league starting pitcher. Pitchers succed by doing two things well - 1) Striking batters out; and 2) Keeping the ball on the ground (and consequently in the park). Blackburn struck out 5.56 per 9 IP in his minor league career. That is just... terrible. Its frightening to imagine how few major league batters he would strike out.

Now, some guys like Chien Ming Wang can succeed despite low strikeout rates by inducing an extreme amount of ground balls. The problem with Blackburn is that he doesnt strike anyone out OR get a great amount of groundballs (41%). For comparison, a sinkerballer like Derek Lowe doesnt strike out a lot of guys, but he looks like Nolan Ryan compared to Blackburn(5.87 K/9 Career). Lowe succeeds despite this poor K rate by getting batters to hit groundballs around 66% of the time. Blackburn simply will not have a long or good career. Add to his poor skill set the fact that he's entering his age 26 season... and well... that's paints a pretty ugly picture. He's just not very good and not going to get any better.

In defense of this pick, Pat already took a number of high upside players so he could gamble here on a guy who could help now. Blackburn might "help" this year, as he very well could make a few starts for the Twinkies. I dont think Blackburn should have gone undrafted, but this is far too high for him in my humble opinion. If Pat wanted to get a close to the majors/help now type why not take Aaron Laffey? He has much better pedigree as a prospect than Blackburn and as good a chance to have an impact this year. He's also younger and better. He isnt a big K guy(6.21/9), but gets a very good amount of ground balls (59%).

Not a fan of this pick.


Pick 6
Greco
P Brett Cecil TOR

I like Cecil, and I appreciate Dave picking the best Maryland Terrapin available, thus sticking it to John and Brad. I do think this is too early for this guy. He was a reliever in college and he has a number of question marks. He does have nasty stuff and a lot of talent.

As the draft approached I questioned if I had Cecil too low. I had Hagadone in the 2nd round and he has some of the same question marks and arguably equal upside. The big difference is Hagadone has four good pitches and Cecil's secondary stuff is very questionable. I think ultimately we see Cecil as a reliever and I dont think anyone would take a reliever this young here... I can see the argument for Cecil, though.


Pick 7
Mezak Attack
INF Jed Lowrie BOS

I know everyone apparently had Lowrie here or higher... but I just dont see him ever being an impact fantasy player. He has no power or speed to speak of. He has no place in a lineup. He's going to be 24 this year. He only contributes in OBP. I think Jed will be an excellent player in real life... but his fantasy value is questionable.

On the other hand the offensive threshold for middle infielders is soooooo low that Lowrie could very easily become an average option at 2B in a year or two. That would be pretty good value... still not a big fan.


Pick 8
Johnny Gay Rainbows
P Aaron Poreda CHW

I dont really like Poreda that much. He has a lot of talent, but he's a pitching project that is a looooong way away. He has an impressive fastball and a nice power arm... but nothing in terms of secondary pitches. The big downside to guys like Poreda, Beavan and Aumont is that they can just as easily end up relief pitchers. Thats the risk you take when you draft a pitching project. I do like Poreda here more than I like Aumont at 12. I had both of them going in the middle of the third round, so this isnt really a big stretch. I just see them as really high risk guys and Im not sure the upside is as advertised.


Pick 9
Donkey Punchers
1B Beau Mills CLE

I like Mills. He is massive and broad shouldered and has plus plus power. I see him as very similar to Chris Davis, but Mills might be a better hitter with less holes in his swing. Davis is very prone to K's. Dont' get me wrong, I would still take Davis above Mills... Davis is likely going to start the year in AAA... so he's a hell of a lot closer to ready - though Mills is expected to move fast. Nearness to the majors is value that overcomes ceiling a lot of the time... Davis is much more of a known quantity and that's worth something.

The caveat with Mills is the same as Davis... its very hard for a 1B prospect to break into the majors and be an above average fantasy option.


Pick 10
Ambulance Chasers
P Aaron Laffey CLE

Kind of a low ceiling guy... though that angle has been overplayed if you ask me. I like him here because I realized I would definitely trade this pick for a mediocre major league pitcher... so why wouldnt I use it on a guy who is likely to pitch >100 innings this year AND I can send him up and down and transition him next year? Pretty happy I got this guy. I think most teams had him around here. Best part was I got my other choice for this pick(Tyler Robertson) with my next pick at the end of the third round.

I had hoped to get a high end position player here but Teagarden, Davis and Mills were all gone, and a number of guys were left from the next tier of position players... unfortunately the two I was targeting (Kalish and Wes Hodges)would both be gone before my next pick.

When I say I think too much was made of his "low ceiling" I would point to his projections for this year (his age 23 season). ZiPS has him going 11-10, pitching 176 innings, striking out 96 and posting a 4.55 ERA. PECOTA has him going 9-7, 150 IP, 80 Ks, and a 4.24 ERA. That's a pretty helpful pitcher to your fantasy team...


BEST PICK: Cahill
QUESTIONABLE PICK: Blackburn
REACH: Aumont, Cecil

CFBL 2008 Minor League Draft Analysis: 1st Round

Pick 1
Hajji Bombs
P David Price TB

A no brainer with the first pick. Price has already impressed in the spring and could move very fast.


Pick 2
Greco
P Rick Porcello DET

I think the consensus is that Porcello should be taken here, although there is a huge element of risk involved in any high school pitcher. I toyed with moving him down on my draft board many times, but in the end I probably take him here.


Pick 3
Spread Eagles
INF Mike Moustakas KC

I think this came as a surprise to most people. Moustakas has a huge upside... makes me think "Jeff Kent," but you know... a good defender. This pick will be judged by how Matt Wieters does ultimately... because that is who Pat passed on to take Moose. It may turn out theyre both very good players, but if they both hit their perfect world projections this pick will look to everyone like a mistake. I do think the criticism is valid, even though both guys could move quick and end up being stars.

I saw this draft as three elite prospects (Price, Porcello, Wieters) and then a drop off followed by two second tier stud prospects (Jennings and Moustakas), and then another drop off. That is why this move puzzled me. If I was sitting at the number 6 pick I would been trying like hell to move up... Pat, on the other hand, was guaranteed no worse than Jennings picking at 5 but gave up a lot of value to move to the #3.


Pick 4
RI Colts
C Matt Wieters BAL

Tom, who had been planning on taking Moustakas for a long time, was delighted to have Wieters fall to him. I dont see how he could have picked anyone else here and it was great value.

What would have been very interesting is to have seen someone really have to choose between Moustakas and Jennings. I think I would have gone Moose, but its super close.


Pick 5
Smelly Spics
OF Desmond Jennings TB

Jennings is a good one and definitely should have been the fifth pick.

You have to have that panic moment though, when you realize with your first pick you just took the second Tampa prospect in the first round... sort of like when Chad Johnson goes in a football draft and every year I shout out "Third best player named johnson is now off the board!"


Pick 6
Spread Eagles
OF Austin Jackson NYY

Im not the biggest Austin Jackson fan, but realistically he's very, very similar to Jennings. My biggest criticism of Jackson is that he's only had about 500 ABs where he performed well... but hey, same goes for Jennings. Theyre both super athletes and power/speed guys with very high ceilings. I had him a good deal lower than here... but then... I hate Yankees.


Pick 7
Mezak Attack
P Jordan Walden LAA

This is the guy I would have taken at #6, so if he comes close to his considerable ceiling its going to make it very, very hard for Austin Jackson to justify Pat's pick short of becoming Carl Crawford or Bobby Abreu.


Pick 8
Spread Eagles
1B Chris Davis TEX

I really like Chris Davis. There is a decent chance he is the first round draft pick who contributes this year significantly. I would have taken him later just because its so extremely difficult for a first base prospect to become an above average MLB first baseman... I mean if he becomes an .800 OPS hitter who hits 25 bombs every year... well, that's not really anything all that special for a first baseman, now is it? I thought he would get picked somewhere around here though, and deservedly so - because plus plus power is hard to come by and this guy has it.


Pick 9
Donkey Punchers
P Alan Horne NYY

Maybe a little early for Horne, but not much moreso than for Davis. My criticism of these two picks would be that there were some higher ceiling young pitchers I would have gone with first... but then those guys all dropped a bit anyway. The pitcher I had in mind here was Trevor Cahill - and Joe actually got him with his next pick, four picks later... so no harm, no foul. For aesthetic reasons I would have taken Cahill here and Horne with the 13th... but its just semantics at this point because he got the two players he should have.

Horne is viewed by many as a low ceiling, poor stuff, older pitching prospect. Not true. He was a first round pick by the Indians but did not sign. He has pretty good stuff, throws pretty hard and gets very good K numbers.


Pick 10
Ambulance Chasers
P Michael Main TEX

A first round pick of the Rangers; a high school pitcher with good stuff. This statement could describe Michael Main or it could just as easily describe Blake Beavan, Tom's third round pick in this draft. In fact, Beaven and Main were both taken by the Rangers this year and Beaven was chosen a handful of picks ahead of Main! I have no doubt Main is the better pitching prospect despite this. The draft order was an issue of signability and pre-arranged deals.

Main has an electric fastball, a plus power curve and some pretty good secondary stuff. He was a two way star who some teams had ranked as their top high school OFer. Main is a phenomenal natural athlete with "plus plus speed" who teams envisioned as a high upside CFer. He also has extremely smooth mechanics. I knew for a long time that he would be sitting for me here and I was going to take him - unless maybe Walden fell. Could I have gotten someone else here and still got Main with the 14th? Maybe. It wasnt a chance I was prepared to take and I was determined this year to take the guys I wanted instead of guys I thought I should take. Its unlike me to take a high school pitcher... but mechanics, athleticism and make up means Main is far less of a risk than most high school pitchers.


BEST PICK: Price
QUESTIONABLE PICK: Moustakas
REACH: Horne/Main