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Wednesday, January 16, 2008

CFBL Team Preview: Stump the Skorupe




OVERVIEW:
2007 Record: 92-111-17
Standings: 8th place, 19 games out of the playoffs

Mike's team was in contention until the end. It has a solid core. Lots of good young players to build around here. This is a team that is on the way up. Whether it will contend in 08 is another question.

PROJECTED LINEUP:
C Salty
1B VMart
2B Brian Roberts
3B Arod
SS Tony Pena
OF Grady Sizemore
OF JD Drew
OF Baldelli
DH Huff

SP CC Sabathia
SP Phil Hughes
SP Vicente Padilla
SP Kyle Davies
SP
SP

RP
RP

BN Dan Johnson
DL Danys Baez

The roster above would cost ~$97 million.



NEEDS:
-Relief pitching
-Upgrade Rotation (more like "Get a rotation")
-Upgrade SS
-Find a 2B if BRob goes


STRENGTHS:

-Has an Ace in CC
-Has a future front of the rotation starter in Phil Hughes
-Good cornerstone players in Sizemore, VMart, Arod
-Lots of players signed to affordable contracts (ie. Sizemore @3.91 through 2011)

WEAKNESSES:

-Not nearly enough pitching
-Why carry two premium catchers and play one at 1B? VMart is only an average producer at 1B. Better to trade one of them and fill out the pitching staff
-Arod costs a lot, for a long time
-Whats the deal with Baldelli? Huff?
-Better off leaving the position empty rather than playing Tony Pena at SS
-Does Brian Roberts stay or go? If he goes, who plays 2B?


PREDICTION:

Mike has a great core. He has really all the pieces that are hard to find... an Ace, a young ace in the making, TWO great catchers, and the best player in fantasy(Arod). For reference, he has the 2007 AL MVP and Cy Young winner. Its going to be difficult to fill out his roster though. He needs to load up on starting pitchers. If he still has money he would be wise to improve the situation at SS.

If he gets some arms and hits on a couple pitchers he will likely be a playoff team. Its going to take some work, but the holes on this team can be filled. He has a strong farm system to draw from if he's in contention. In fact, if arms like Hurley and Adenhart come up he could end up with a dynamite staff.

Essentially, I look at this team and think he has two options to get better and compete this year. One way is to buy up cheapy starting pitchers and long relievers who could start in the auction - BUT without overspending on too many guys(READ: No Carmona). Try to put together enough depth in your rotation to pick up wins or Ks half of the time and let your offense carry you. The other option is to trade some of the offense for pitching. There's no reason to carry two all star catchers when your pitching staff is hurting this bad, but he apparently has no interest in trading Salty or VMart. The downside to the second option is that youre most likely trading a premium asset for mediocre players. Trading quality for quantity is typically not a good idea. In this case Id consider it if I could get a pitcher I really liked.

UPDATE: If Brian Roberts gets trade to the Cubs for Sean Gallagher, Sean Marshall, and Ronny Cedeno I like his team even better. That would force Mike into the trade some offense for pitching move that he is stubbornly refusing to make. If the Orioles do eventually get Rich Hill for Roberts, as theyre reportedly holding out for, then Mike suddenly has an above average pitching staff. 2B is typically hard to fill and the situation would be exacerbated by his SS situation. Going into the auction with Tony Pena as your only middle infielder is positively painful. On the other hand, Every team except Steve has a second baseman locked up and there are more than two useful 2B available. This team really needs to give up some hitting to get some pitching.


FARM SYSTEM:
Mike has a lot of guys who can help now on the farm. He also has depth and upside. Its a very good system. Phil Hughes, Saltalamacchia, Alexi Casilla are all going to help this year. The next wave will be Eric Hurley, Matt Harrison and Nick Adenhart. After that he has tons of high ceiling low minors guys(most of them from the Teixeira trade) with Elvis Andrus, Neftali Perez, Hank Conger and Kasey Kiker. Lots to like here.


OFFENSE: B+
PITCHING: C
FARM SYSTEM: A
OVERALL: B-


PREDICTED FINISH: 7th/8th (TIE)

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